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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète25 févr. 23, 21:55 UTC1 janv. 30, 21:54 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Nayib Bukele be in prison, dead, disappeared or on the run by 1st Jan 2030
Manifold MarketsWhich of the following will be true by 2030? (Nayib Bukele Questions)
Manifold MarketsWill Nayib Bukele be the leader of El Salvador in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Nayib Bukele peacefully transition out of power before 2035?
Manifold Markets2026: Trump's dream year?
KalshiWill the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Will Nayib Bukele's, President of El Salvador, Anti-Gang strategy been seen as a positive model (in reducing homicide and crime rate) in 2030?
- Background: (Feb 2023) Nayib Bukele has initiated aggressive policies punishing gang members.
- The homicide rate has drastically fallen in his first years of tenure, with 50% and 58% reduction year over year.
- At the same time, his tenure has been criticised as an example of democratic backsliding by the US government, and been reported to have made deals with the largest gang in El Salvador (MS13).
- Resolution: This resolves subjectively to my own judgment, but I would ideally love to defer to experts who seem level headed and reliable.
- Some reasons I could imagine this resolving positive:
