Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 53%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard6 août 26, 00:41 UTC6 août 27, 00:39 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will open-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?
Manifold MarketsWill closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)?
Manifold MarketsWill Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Inspired by Roon's tweet: roon (@tszzl) on X
- Partner Market on open-source models: https://manifold.markets/prismatic/will-opensource-models-be-more-or-l
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on my judgement; feel free to ask me questions in the comments or post supporting material.
- Resolves YES if MORE aligned.
- Resolves NO if LESS aligned.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 63,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 63,6 k €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.8pt68.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt15.7%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,5 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-9.9pt81%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 27,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 27,4 k €
- Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 53% au 15 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now? doit être résolu le 6 août 2027.
- Comment Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Inspired by Roon's tweet: roon (@tszzl) on X