Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 82.9%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète1 nov. 25, 02:44 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will I create a PR to allow resolving options in multiple-choice markets to NO?
Manifold MarketsWhat causes Manifold Love to fail? (Resolves to multiple answers)
Manifold MarketsWhich Proofnik will get the "Trustworthy. ish." badge next? [now with the good multiple-choice market type]
Manifold MarketsWhen will the ability to allow resolving options in multiple-choice markets to NO be added?
Manifold MarketsBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiBTC price on Oct 27, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRègles
This refers to the Multiple Choice market type which maintains a total percentage across all options, not the Set type.
- To enable easier trading on markets like "Who will be in the top 5" or "Which of these 10 will be selected", it would be possible to set up a market with enough Yes shares that 10 separate answers could all resolve to 100%.
- The new market structure must improve capital efficiency compared to the existing structure of "All 5 resolve to 20% each" that people sometimes do.
- I'm the final arbiter of whether something counts.
- Resolves Yes if Manifold implements this before 2027 and it goes live long enough for at least one market to be created.
- Resolves No otherwise.
