When will I create a PR to allow resolving options in multiple-choice markets to NO?
One-OffTech2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleBefore 2050 56.7%En tête parmi 11 options
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète16 sept. 25, 17:22 UTC2 janv. 27, 18:06 UTC
Tendances
Règles
When I refer to a "multiple-choice market", I mean one where the probability of all choices always add up to 100%.
- This also includes at least some forms of date and numeric markets.
- Right now, all mana invested in this type of market remains tied up until the winning choice has been selected.
- It would be far more optimal for prediction accuracy and mana management if guaranteed-wrong options could be resolved NO as they become guaranteed-wrong.
- A "PR" refers to a GitHub Pull Request, and it is the mechanism by which code changes to manifold are currently proposed.
- This market will resolve based on whether/when I submit an as-described change to Manifold, regardless of whether it's accepted or whether the exact mechanism is a GitHub PR.
