Which Proofnik will get the "Trustworthy. ish." badge next? [now with the good multiple-choice market type]
One-OffRécompenses2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle@JoshuaB 45.5%En tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 28 minutes
5 sept. 23, 03:55 UTC1 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Currently, I'm the only Proofnik (here, defined as a current or former member of Proof School) to have the notorious "Trustworthy. ish." checkmark badge, which was mostly meaningless when I made this market using the old multiple-choice option in January, and is now somewhat meaningless.
- (Not a ton of people have been badged this year, but if it was up to me, there are various Proofniks who I sorta think "deserve" the badge at this point.)
- If and when I learn of another Proofnik who has received this badge, I will check all other Proofniks to see if they have the badge.
- If no one else has it, I will resolve to that Proofnik; otherwise, I will resolve in equal percentages to all trustworthy-ish Proofniks besides me.
- (Clarification: If one of them is a Proofnik who's not an answer in the market, I will add them with a M$1 bet first.
- I will never resolve "Other", but betting on "Other" gives shares in answers which are added later.)
