Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 02:12 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleBefore 2050 60%En tête parmi 11 options
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète20 sept. 25, 16:40 UTC31 déc. 28, 17:31 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will I create a PR to allow resolving options in multiple-choice markets to NO?
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PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRègles
When I refer to a "multiple-choice market", I mean one where the probability of all choices always add up to 100%.
- This also includes at least some forms of date and numeric markets.
- Right now, all mana invested in this type of market remains tied up until the winning choice has been selected.
- It would be far more optimal for prediction accuracy and mana management if guaranteed-wrong options could be resolved NO as they become guaranteed-wrong.
- The appropriate date ranges in this market will resolve YES at the time that a change implementing this gets deployed on the site.
- I may bet YES in this market in order to incentivize myself to accomplish this, but I will not bet NO (beyond selling YES shares).
