Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle2029 7%En tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
26
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard10 oct. 23, 05:27 UTC1 janv. 29, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
0%
0%
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
How will Trump serve time?
Manifold MarketsWhat new playable Super Smash Brothers characters will be added by 2028? [Unlinked Multiple Choice]
Manifold MarketsTrump to serve his full term?
FutuurWill the Live-Action Legend of Zelda movie be “Certified Fresh” on Rotten Tomatoes? [Multiple Choice]
Manifold MarketsTrump To Serve Second Term In Full
SmarketsDonald Trump to serve as president for 9+ years by end of 2030
SmarketsRègles
A derivative market of @/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned
- Note that this is not just about when Trump begins serving time, but also about in which years he will still be serving time before his release/death.
- This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format.
- The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers.
- Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.
- Any year in which trump is serving a custodial sentence will resolve Yes.
Marchés ouverts
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 695,7 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Volume total
- 24,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 294,7 k €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 54,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 291,3 k €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour In which years will Trump Serve Time? [Unlinked Multiple Choice] ?
- Manifold Markets cote 2029 à 7% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand In which years will Trump Serve Time? [Unlinked Multiple Choice] sera-t-il résolu ?
- In which years will Trump Serve Time? [Unlinked Multiple Choice] doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2029.
- Comment In which years will Trump Serve Time? [Unlinked Multiple Choice] est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : A derivative market of @/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned