Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
PolitiqueOne-OffÉlectionLatin America1moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 55%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète12 janv. 26, 01:01 UTC28 oct. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
FutuurWill Lula be a candidate for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWill Lula win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWho will win the 2026 Brazilian Presidential Election?
Manifold MarketsW50 Evora: Valentina Ivanov vs Gabriella Da Silva Fick
PolymarketW50 Evora: Francisca Jorge vs Gabriella Da Silva Fick
PolymarketRègles
This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
- https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2026-narcissist-forecasting-contest
- The prop and any ambiguities will be resolved by a panel of human judges, as described in the fine print of the entry form:
- https://forms.gle/nDDxdxyYSNheY9FV7
- This means that the prop may resolve differently from how other, similar-looking Manifold props resolve.
- Do not bet on this market if that is going to bother you.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 55% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? doit être résolu le 28 octobre 2026.
- Comment Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here: