Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 99%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète13 janv. 26, 01:17 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will ICE change its name in 2026?
KalshiWill Congress officially change the name of the Kennedy Center to honor Trump in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any US state change its name by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI change their name before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Taylor Swift change her name if she marries?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Iran's official government name is formally changed to "Persia" at any point during 2026.
- Resolution requires official documentation from Iran's government or international bodies (UN, etc.) recognizing the name change.
- The market resolves NO if no such official change occurs by December 31, 2026.
- In 1935, Reza Shah Pahlavi officially requested that foreign delegates begin using the endonym "Iran" in formal correspondence, and subsequently "Iran" and "Iranian" were standardised as the terms referring to the country and its citizens.
- Iran's official name since 1979 is Jomhuri-ye Eslāmi-ye Irān, which translates as the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Marchés ouverts
Middle East
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+21.6pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 25,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 695 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
KALSHIAl Qadsiah vs Al Ahli Saudi
- Al Qadsiah+21.0pt68.6%
- Tie-3.0pt20.6%
- Al Ahli Saudi-17.0pt10.8%
- Volume total
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.0pt55.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu28.6%
- Naftali Bennett8.2%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Volume total
- 6,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 107,6 k €
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- No+0.1pt100%
- Yes-0.1pt0%
- Volume total
- 1,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 104,5 k €
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Al-Ittihad vs Al-Fayha
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Netanyahu out by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Iran change it's name to Persia in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 99% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Iran change it's name to Persia in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Iran change it's name to Persia in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Iran change it's name to Persia in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria