PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisProbabilité implicite actuelleMojtaba Khamenei 68%-2.4%En tête parmi 123 options
Qualite du marche
100 / 100
Haute qualitéVolume 24h
19,4 k €
Liquidité
1,3 M €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
68.3% / 68.4%
Spread
0.1%
Spread serréVariation 7j
-2.2%
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
1 mars 26, 0:2831 déc. 26, 0:00
Tendances
Résultat choisi
Mojtaba Khamenei68%
Également disponible sur Manifold Markets
Leader of Iran at end of 2026?
6mo
65.7%
2.6%
0.2%
+21 résultats de plus
Prévision communautaire212 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice
Volume total43,2 k €
Volume 24h142,4 €
MANIFOLD MARKETSRègles
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
- Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
- If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
- Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
- Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
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This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
- Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
- If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
- Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
- Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.