PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisProbabilité implicite actuelle
July 31 56%-8.0%En tête parmi 17 options
Qualite du marche
77 / 100
Haute qualitéVolume 24h
3,3 M €
Liquidité
312 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
- / 0.1%
Variation 7j
-15.9%
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 minutes
Tendances
0%
0%
Résultat choisi
July 3156%
Marchés Associés
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
3,8 M €December 31: 68%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?
812,4 k €June 30: 31%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
713,9 k €Oui: 2%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
4,6 k €Oui: 1.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks)
1,9 k €3 weeks+ (May 12th, 1pm): 100%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
US-Iran nuclear deal?
752,4 €Before July: 8%
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
- A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either:
- Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended.
- Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue.