How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks)
One-OffGéopolitiqueMiddle East6moManifold MarketsSans KYCPrévision communautaire actuelle3 weeks+ (May 12th, 1pm) 100%En tête parmi 13 options
Prévisionnistes
92
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 minutes
6 mai 26, 22:3731 déc. 26, 23:37
Tendances
100%
Résultat choisi
7 weeks+ (June 9th, 1pm)99%
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[image]Counting from the time of this post as starting time, 4/21 1:09 pst.
- If the war does not restart by 4/23 1:09 PST then more than 2 days resolved YES
- Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): 0.5 weeks is measured as 3 full days and 12 hours.
- Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The dates/times for each option are listed in PST.
- Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Wikipedia article on the 2026 Iran war ceasefire will be used as the source for determining whether the ceasefire is still holding.
- Update 2026-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the war ends entirely, that also counts as the ceasefire holding, even if Wikipedia lists a war-ending date on the ceasefire article.