Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 83.6%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète25 janv. 26, 07:03 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Brigitte Macron wins defamation suit against Candace Owens before 2028?
KalshiMacron vs Owens: Who wins the defamation lawsuit?
MyriadWill Ubuntu be sued in Brazil?
Manifold MarketsWill Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill an emergency service provider be sued because of an AI system by eoy2027?
Manifold MarketsIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
PolymarketRègles
I strongly dislike people who (I feel) abuse the legal system.
- My typical response to threats to sue for defamation is to refuse, and perhaps publish even more negative information about that party in response.
- (My two brushes with the risk so far have been my TCG-Con article where they threatened to sue me and never followed through, and my tangential involvement with the vexatious litigant Oliver Smith; I offered to host on my website one of the articles that he kept trying to get taken down via legal threats, but ended up not doing this because it stayed up elsewhere.)
- This has not caused any problems for me so far, and nobody has ever actually sued me.
- However, that may not remain the case forever.
- I will include for this purposes of this market suits that are technically not "for defamation", but are clearly in response to me publishing information that the other party did not like.
Marchés ouverts
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volume total
- 10,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 25,8 k €
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31-2.0pt25%
- October 31-2.5pt11%
- September 30-0.6pt3%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWho will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- John Brennan-1.0pt52%
- Leon Black31%
- Anthony Fauci-4.0pt25%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,4 M €
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+23.0pt76.5%
- 60+-23.0pt13.3%
- <20-1.4pt8.2%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWho will be arrested before 2027?
- John Brennan27%
- Mahmoud Khalil+0.5pt19%
- James Clapper12%
+21 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETSBF released from custody in 2026?
- No-0.1pt98%
- Yes+0.1pt2%
- Volume total
- 398,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 k €
- Jimmy Lai released by which date?
- Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by which date?
- Who will be arrested in 2026?
- Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- Jack Doherty Prison Time?
- Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?
- Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by which date?
- Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will I be sued for defamation before the end of the decade? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 84% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will I be sued for defamation before the end of the decade? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will I be sued for defamation before the end of the decade? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Will I be sued for defamation before the end of the decade? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : I strongly dislike people who (I feel) abuse the legal system.