Will I (@Bayesian) see a humanoid robot in person, in 2026?

KALSHI

Top AI model in September?

• claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
• claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
• claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%

+3 résultats de plus

Volume total

135,2 k €

Volume 24h

102,7 k €

POLYMARKET

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?

• 2028+6.5pt62.1%
• 2027-3.5pt28.4%
• 2026+2.0pt9.5%

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,-1.0pt90%
• December 15,+3.5pt90%
• November 30,85%

+7 résultats de plus

Volume total

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude-0.7pt61.4%
• ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
• Grok-0.1pt7.9%

+5 résultats de plus

Volume total

9,1 M €

KALSHI

Best AI in Sep 2026?

• Claude+3.0pt81.3%
• ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
• Grok2.8%

+4 résultats de plus

Volume total

325 k €

POLYMARKET

OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?

• 1480+-2.5pt66%
• 1490+-9.0pt51%
• 1500+-3.0pt23%

+2 résultats de plus