Will Gitmo or Cecot transition from concentration camps to full blown extermination camps by the 2028 US election?
PolitiqueOne-OffSanté et médecineÉlectionCriminalité et justice2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 19 oct. 2026, 17:17 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 82%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 52 minutes
En retard1 avr. 25, 22:46 UTC4 nov. 28, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Gitmo here means all detention centres in US controlled Guantanamo Bay.
- Cecot here means the Centre for Confinement of Terrorism in El Salvador.
- Being a full blown extermination camp here means that there is verified evidence in mainstream media that >10% of US deportees sent there have been killed or sentenced to death, with killing including not only direct execution but also deaths from overworking, neglect, starvation, and disease where it is intentionally brought about by the operators of the facilities.
- Update 2025-04-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Timing:
- Initial Resolution: An initial resolution will be made soon after the market close date to avoid locking up mana unnecessarily.
- Re-resolution: The market will be re-resolved if new, verified, reputable evidence emerges after the initial resolution.
