Will Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter beat the S&P 500?
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Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 06:50 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 85%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète15 avr. 25, 12:42 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria:
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if before 2030 (in the next ~5 years) Elon Musk:
- Sells Twitter (X)
- The sale price beats what he would've made investing his initial investment into the S&P 500, not including additional (infl. adj.) cash/assets that Elon may have infused into the company during his ownership.
- The market will resolve N/A if Elon does not sell X, and "No" if the sale price does not beat the S&P500.
- ('Sale price' could also be market cap after IPO).
