Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 80.2%
Prévisionnistes
28
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète18 avr. 25, 15:44 UTC31 déc. 32, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job loss [See full title!]
Manifold MarketsAny of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill the US attack Fordow AGAIN before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Kamala announce a run in 2028
Manifold MarketsWho will win the 2026 election for California's 40th State Senate district
Manifold MarketsBrazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026?
FutuurRègles
Elon used to vote democrat, post stuff about his support for LGBT people, and was a hero of the climate movement.
- That is... no longer the case.
- But maybe it will be once again?
- Resolves based on my judgement of the vibes.
- Simply becoming more critical of the Trump admin would not be sufficient, he has to firmly be left-coded.
- Update 2025-07-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Joining or supporting the America Party will not be sufficient for a YES resolution.
