Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026
PolitiqueOne-OffMétéoPolitique américaineÉlection2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 98.2%
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 33 minutes
9 juil. 25, 21:51 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any newly elected representatives be denied a seat in congress?
Manifold MarketsWill any America Party candidate be on a federal or gubernatorial ballot before 2027?
KalshiAmerica party candidate wins any election in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if a third party candidate officially affiliated with the America Party is officially declared the winner of a seat in the U.S. Congress (either the House of Representatives or the Senate; federal US Congress only) in the 2026 elections.
- Official election results from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) or the respective state election authorities will serve as the primary sources for resolution.
- If no America Party candidate wins a congressional seat in 2026, the market will resolve to "No."
- The candidate should not be a nominee for the Republican or Democratic Party, so if a candidate informally identifies as "America Party" but is a Republican or Democratic Party nominee, their win will not be sufficient to resolve this market "Yes".
- The America Party, founded by Elon Musk, aims to influence U.S. politics by focusing on key swing states and competitive congressional districts.
