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Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026

PolitiqueOne-OffWeather US Politics Élection3mois

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 98.2%

Prévisionnistes

20

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 13 heures

Obsolète

9 juil. 25, 21:51 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Marchés Associés

Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?

Manifold Markets

What will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026?

Manifold Markets

Will any newly elected representatives be denied a seat in congress?

Manifold Markets

Will any America Party candidate be on a federal or gubernatorial ballot before 2027?

Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?

Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026?

Règles

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a third party candidate officially affiliated with the America Party is officially declared the winner of a seat in the U.S. Congress (either the House of Representatives or the Senate; federal US Congress only) in the 2026 elections.
Official election results from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) or the respective state election authorities will serve as the primary sources for resolution.
If no America Party candidate wins a congressional seat in 2026, the market will resolve to "No."
The candidate should not be a nominee for the Republican or Democratic Party, so if a candidate informally identifies as "America Party" but is a Republican or Democratic Party nominee, their win will not be sufficient to resolve this market "Yes".
The America Party, founded by Elon Musk, aims to influence U.S. politics by focusing on key swing states and competitive congressional districts.

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Questions fréquentes

Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026 ?: Manifold Markets cote No à 98% au 8 septembre 2026.
Quand Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026 sera-t-il résolu ?: Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026 doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
Comment Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026 est-il réglé ?: Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria

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