Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlectionÉlections de mi-mandat américaines 20262moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 98.5%
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète10 juil. 25, 01:17 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
While 10% of the vote would not win the seat, by taking votes from other candidates, 10% may be enough to change the outcome of an election and influence the final composition of the House of Representatives and even which party has a house majority.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if any official candidate nominated by the America Party receives at least 10% of the total votes in any U.S. Congressional seat (House or Senate) during the 2026 elections.
- Official election results from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) or respective state election authorities will serve as the primary sources for verification.
- For this item to resolve yes, the candidate must be a nominee or member of the America Party, and CANNOT be an official nominee of the Democrat or Republican Party.
- Refers to the federal U.S. Congress only, not state legislatures.
