KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 86%
Qualité du marché
46 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
1,9 k €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
7.7% / 14.0%
Écart
6.3 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
27 août 25, 20:45 UTC8 sept. 28, 14:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any America Party candidate be on a federal or gubernatorial ballot before 2027?
KalshiWhat will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsAny of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026
Manifold MarketsAny of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketRègles
If a party founded by Elon Musk contests the 2028 U.S. presidential election by having at least one candidate officially on the ballot before Sep 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Reutersthe Associated PressBloombergThe New York TimesThe GuardianThe Wall Street JournalCNNAl Jazeera
- A party "contests" an election if they have at least one candidate on the official ballot under the party name, participate in a formal coalition on the ballot, or have officially endorsed candidates with clear party affiliation.
- The party does NOT contest if they only endorse other parties' candidates, announce a boycott, fail to meet ballot access requirements, or only challenge results after voting without having participated.
- For multi-round elections, appearing on any round's ballot counts.
- For federal systems, contesting in any state/province counts for the federal election.
- If the election is postponed but occurs within one year, the contract remains valid.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election? ?
- Kalshi cote No à 86% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election? doit être résolu le 8 septembre 2028.
- Comment Will the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If a party founded by Elon Musk contests the 2028 U.S. presidential election by having at least one candidate officially on the ballot before Sep 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.