Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 09:52 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 63.6%
Prévisionnistes
62
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 54 minutes
En retard24 sept. 23, 01:46 UTC2 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
Manifold MarketsEliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on Sesame Street by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Eliezer uses an idiosyncratic phraseology and tends to assume a lot of shared context from his conversation partner.
- This works fine with other enfranchised rationalists, but makes it difficult for him to be understood when speaking to a general audience.
- For example, in the Destiny vs. Eliezer debate, Destiny took care to use common words and simple, concise descriptions.
- Eliezer by contrast would use various terms-of-art and subculture references that many audience members (and even Destiny himself) wouldn't understand, and would give long rambling vague answers that made people think he was dodging the question.
- If I find a relatively technical discussion of Eliezer's, lasting at least a half hour, where he does a better job of communicating in a way that won't be off-putting to most educated English speakers, I'll resolve this to YES.
- Otherwise it resolves to NO.
