Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 21:52 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 98.2%
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64
Type de question
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète3 avr. 23, 14:28 UTC1 janv. 30, 05:00 UTC
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Will Aella have a child by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen Aella has a child, the identity of the father will be a straight male
Manifold MarketsWhen Aella has a child, the father will have a known Twitter account with >10k followers at time of birth
Manifold MarketsWhen Aella has a child, the identity of the father will be public
Manifold MarketsParis curfew effectively lifted by which date?
PolymarketTurner Prize 2026 Winner
PolymarketRègles
[tweet]Resolves based on the time of conception, not birth.
- An adopted child would count, as would a surrogate.
- (In the case of adoption, resolves based on the time of legal adoption.)
