Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 73.2%
Prévisionnistes
53
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète7 janv. 23, 19:00 UTC1 janv. 30, 20:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhen Aella has a child, the identity of the father will be a straight male
Manifold MarketsWhen Aella has a child, the father will have a known Twitter account with >10k followers at time of birth
Manifold MarketsWhen Aella has a child, the identity of the father will be public
Manifold MarketsParis curfew effectively lifted by which date?
PolymarketWhat will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?
KalshiRègles
detail: will there have existed a living, born, genetic descendant of Aella by the due date