Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 91.2%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète13 août 26, 23:51 UTC28 janv. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Donald Trump's speech at the UN General Assembly in September 2026 last longer than 45 minutes?
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Donald Trump lives to have a longer lifespan than John Quincy Adams.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
- John Quincy Adams' Lifespan: 29,446 days (born July 11, 1767; died February 23, 1848), which is exactly 80 years and 227 days.
- Donald Trump's Lifespan: Born on June 14, 1946, Trump will have lived 29,447 days—officially surpassing Adams—if he is alive on January 27, 2027.
- Resolution Rule: If Donald Trump is confirmed alive at any point on January 27, 2027 (in his local time zone), this market resolves to YES.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Donald Trump have a longer lifespan than John Quincy Adams? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 91% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Donald Trump have a longer lifespan than John Quincy Adams? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Donald Trump have a longer lifespan than John Quincy Adams? doit être résolu le 28 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will Donald Trump have a longer lifespan than John Quincy Adams? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria