Will Donald Trump be assassinated before the end of his presidency?
One-OffPolitique américainePolitiqueÉlectionSportGolf2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 19:45 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 92.2%
Prévisionnistes
47
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète5 avr. 25, 13:52 UTC21 janv. 29, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Trump be assassinated during his second term?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is assassinated will the S&P500 rise >3% in the following week?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is assassinated will it be while visiting another country?
Manifold MarketsWill Putin be assassinated during his presidency?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump finally get sentenced to the Big House (or worse) after he leaves office in 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill they announce a presidential library at Trump's Bedminster golf course by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Donald Trump is assassinated (killed as a result of a deliberate attempt on his life) before the end of his presidential term ending January 20, 2029.
- It will also resolve YES if he is rendered so injured (brain death, coma, etc.) by an assassination attempt that he is forced to end his presidency.
- It resolves NO if he completes his term without being assassinated or leaves office early for reasons other than assassination (such as resignation, impeachment, or natural death).
- If he resigns as a result of fear of assassination this market will also resolve NO.
- Donald Trump has already survived at least two known assassination attempts in 2024:
