Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95.7%
Prévisionnistes
51
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète16 sept. 24, 20:09 UTC20 janv. 29, 17:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Donald Trump be assassinated before the end of his presidency?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is assassinated will the S&P500 rise >3% in the following week?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is assassinated will it be while visiting another country?
Manifold MarketsWhat Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
Manifold MarketsHow many articles will Trump be impeached on in his second term?
KalshiWill Trump go on SNL during his second term?
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if Donald Trump dies by homicide while being president (during the term beginning 1/20/2025.)
- Resolves NO if Donald Trump finishes his time in office alive OR dies of any cause while president excluding homicide.
- Clarifications:
- If Donald Trump is replaced as president by an acting President due to incapacitation caused by an assassination attempt (25th constitutional amendment) AND later dies from injuries/complications before 1/20/2029, the market resolves YES.
- Trump’s term is considered over when his 4 year term expires, or earlier if he resigns or is removed from office.
