If Trump is assassinated will the S&P500 rise >3% in the following week?
ActionsOne-OffPolitique américaine2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 68.5%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète19 avr. 25, 01:14 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolves yes if Trump is assassinated before January 20, 2029 AND in the week following (starting at the time of the fatal attack, even if death occurs at a later time) SPX increases by at least 3% (measured by exact price to exact price, or most recent close if the attack occurs outside trading hours) according to Yahoo Finance.
- Resolves no if Trump is assassinated and SPX does not increase by >3%.
- Resolves NA if Trump is not assassinated before January 20, 2029.
