Will Clarence Thomas's replacement be appointed by a Democratic president?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection6a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 55.4%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète19 janv. 26, 19:23 UTC19 janv. 33, 19:18 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a Democratic president appoints Clarence Thomas's replacement to the Supreme Court.
- This market resolves NO if a Republican president appoints his replacement.
- Resolution will be determined by the party affiliation of the president who nominates and the Senate that confirms the replacement justice.
- The replacement must specifically fill Thomas's seat—expansion of the Court or replacement of other justices (Alito, Sotomayor, etc.) does not count.
- Thomas has served as an associate justice of the Supreme Court since 1991, and has surpassed Justice Hugo Black to become the fifth-longest-serving justice in U.S. Supreme Court history as of November 2025.