Will China also kidnap the president of Taiwan in 2026?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineGéopolitiqueChineAmérique latine2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 97.8%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard6 janv. 26, 13:53 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if China successfully kidnaps or captures Taiwan's president (currently Lai Ching-te) at any point during 2026.
- Resolution requires credible reporting from major international news sources confirming the capture.
- The market resolves NO if the year ends without such an event occurring.
- U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife on January 3, 2026, sparking discussion about whether China might follow suit with Taiwan.
- The operation sparked widespread discussion on Chinese social media, with the topic gaining some 440 million views on Weibo, and Chinese social media users are arguing that Beijing should adopt Trump's methods and apply them to Taiwan.
