Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 88.6%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 30 minutes
22 mars 25, 22:49 UTC31 déc. 39, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Iceland become a member of the EU before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill Switzerland become a member of the EU before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill Canada become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any portion of Canada become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction by December 31, 2028?
ForecastExNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Canada has become a member of the European Union before January 1st 2040.
- This also applies if a main successor to Canada joins a main successor to the EU before that date. “Strong evidence” may include formal accession treaties, official announcements by relevant governing bodies, or other clear confirmation that membership has been granted.
- If there is no such membership or evidence thereof by January 1st 2040, the market will resolve as NO.
Marchés ouverts
EuropePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 617,4 k €
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.9pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 821,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 107,7 k €
POLYMARKETMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- AfD+2.0pt78.4%
- SPD-1.0pt21.6%
- CDU0%
+5 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson+1.0pt77.5%
- Ulf Kristersson-2.0pt20.6%
- Jimmie Åkesson-0.8pt1%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase-0.1pt100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Berlin State Election Winner
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?
- AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?
- Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Canada become a member of the EU before 2040? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 89% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Canada become a member of the EU before 2040? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Canada become a member of the EU before 2040? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2039.
- Comment Will Canada become a member of the EU before 2040? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Canada has become a member of the European Union before January 1st 2040.