Will ballistic missile with range over 500km launched from Ukraine hit any target in Russia in 2026?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffRussia / Ukraine3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 55.3%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète31 juil. 26, 10:44 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before December 31, 2026, at 23:59 Moscow Time, a ballistic missile launched from Ukraine hits any target within territory currently controlled by Russia, at the distance greater than 500km from territory currently controlled by Ukraine.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Key Definitions and Rules:
- Ballistic Missile: The weapon must be classified as a ballistic missile (such as Fire Point's FP-9, or any Sapsan/Hrim-2 variant confirmed to have a range exceeding 500 km).
- Cruise missiles (e.g., Neptunes, Flamingos), rocket-drones (e.g., Palianytsia), and standard kamikaze drones do not qualify.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will ballistic missile with range over 500km launched from Ukraine hit any target in Russia in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 55% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will ballistic missile with range over 500km launched from Ukraine hit any target in Russia in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will ballistic missile with range over 500km launched from Ukraine hit any target in Russia in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will ballistic missile with range over 500km launched from Ukraine hit any target in Russia in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria