Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 73.3%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
17 juin 26, 08:16 UTC10 sept. 26, 12:25 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will October 2026 U.S. PPI final demand rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsWill August 2026 U.S. advance retail sales rise at least 0.5% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsWill August 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in September?
PolymarketCPI in August
KalshiFed rate hike by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Producer Price Index release for August 2026 reports that the PPI for final demand rose 0.3% or more month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- Use the headline Final Demand row in the BLS Producer Price Indexes news release, seasonally adjusted one-month percent change from July 2026 to August 2026.
- Resolve NO if that seasonally adjusted month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower.
- Do not use CPI, PCE, import/export prices, year-over-year PPI, core PPI, final demand less foods/energy/trade services, not-seasonally-adjusted change, or later annual revisions unless BLS corrects the initial August 2026 release before resolution.
- If the August 2026 PPI release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release of the August 2026 figure unless there is no BLS August 2026 PPI release by September 17, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"final_demand_less_food_energy_trade_sa_mom_may_2026": 0.8, "final_demand_sa_mom_april_2026": 1.1, "final_demand_sa_mom_march_2026": 0.7, "final_demand_sa_mom_may_2026": 1.1, "final_demand_yoy_may_2026": 6.5, "note": "June and July 2026 PPI releases were still future releases at this market's creation time.", "release": "Producer Price Indexes - May 2026"}, "metric": "Seasonally adjusted one-month percent change in final demand PPI from July 2026 to August 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["May, June, and July 2026 PPI final-demand markets are prior-reference-month markets, not August 2026 duplicates.", "CPI, PCE, AHE, import/export price, and calendar-year inflation markets use different releases or series.", "Core PPI or final-demand-less-food-energy-trade-services questions are not duplicates of headline final demand."], "release_schedule": "BLS PPI schedule lists Producer Price Index for August 2026 on 2026-09-10 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Producer Price Index release for August 2026", "series_family": "PPI final demand, seasonally adjusted", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}.
- Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS PPI release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm - BLS 2026 selected release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/current_year.asp - BLS current PPI release page: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.htm - BLS PPI home: https://www.bls.gov/ppi/
Marchés ouverts
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 89,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 541,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 334,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8 k €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 résultats de plus
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 77,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 5,5 k €
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will August 2026 U.S. PPI final demand rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 73% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will August 2026 U.S. PPI final demand rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will August 2026 U.S. PPI final demand rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? doit être résolu le 10 septembre 2026.
- Comment Will August 2026 U.S. PPI final demand rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Producer Price Index release for August 2026 reports that the PPI for final demand rose 0.3% or more month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.