Will October 2026 U.S. PPI final demand rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
One-OffInflationMacro et économie14j
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 54.4%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète18 juin 26, 16:01 UTC13 nov. 26, 12:25 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will November 2026 U.S. PPI final demand rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
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KalshiPPI YoY in October
KalshiFed decision in January
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ForecastExWill customer service employment fall >5% in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Producer Price Index release for October 2026 reports that the PPI for final demand rose 0.3% or more month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- Use the headline Final Demand row in the BLS Producer Price Indexes news release, seasonally adjusted one-month percent change from September 2026 to October 2026.
- Resolve NO if that seasonally adjusted month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower.
- Do not use CPI, PCE, import/export prices, year-over-year PPI, core PPI, final demand less foods/energy/trade services, not-seasonally-adjusted change, or later annual revisions unless BLS corrects the initial October 2026 release before resolution.
- If the October 2026 PPI release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release of the October 2026 figure unless there is no BLS October 2026 PPI release by November 13, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"final_demand_less_food_energy_trade_sa_mom_may_2026": 0.8, "final_demand_sa_mom_april_2026": 1.1, "final_demand_sa_mom_march_2026": 0.7, "final_demand_sa_mom_may_2026": 1.1, "final_demand_yoy_may_2026": 6.5, "note": "June and October 2026 PPI releases were still future releases at this market's creation time.", "release": "Producer Price Indexes - October 2026"}, "metric": "Seasonally adjusted one-month percent change in final demand PPI from October 2026 to October 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["May, June, and October 2026 PPI final-demand markets are prior-reference-month markets, not October 2026 duplicates.", "CPI, PCE, AHE, import/export price, and calendar-year inflation markets use different releases or series.", "Core PPI or final-demand-less-food-energy-trade-services questions are not duplicates of headline final demand."], "release_schedule": "BLS PPI schedule lists Producer Price Index for October 2026 on 2026-11-13 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Producer Price Index release for October 2026", "series_family": "PPI final demand, seasonally adjusted", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}.
- Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS PPI release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm - BLS 2026 selected release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/current_year.asp - BLS current PPI release page: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.htm - BLS PPI home: https://www.bls.gov/ppi/
