Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 91.9%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 minutes
20 mars 23, 10:30 UTC2 janv. 00, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky ever win a Nobel Prize?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Mircea Cărtărescu win a Nobel Prize in Literature (2025-2030)?
Manifold MarketsChad Jones wins Nobel Prize in Economics before 2033?
Manifold MarketsNobel Prize in Literature: 2026
KalshiNobel Prize in Economics 2026
Kalshi2026 Nobel Physics winner?
KalshiRègles
Resolves positively immediately upon award, or negatively after the first round of Prizes awarded after his death.
Marchés ouverts
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Volume total
- 15,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 18,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Volume total
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Volume total
- 916 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5 k €
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-2.0pt57%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 863,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1 k €
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Aubrey de Grey ever win a Nobel Prize? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 92% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Aubrey de Grey ever win a Nobel Prize? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Aubrey de Grey ever win a Nobel Prize? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2200.
- Comment Will Aubrey de Grey ever win a Nobel Prize? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves positively immediately upon award, or negatively after the first round of Prizes awarded after his death.