Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?
IAOne-Off4a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 54.3%
Prévisionnistes
35
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète16 mai 24, 02:34 UTC1 janv. 31, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
It's easy to envision one or two purely-AI-written books, given good marketing, making it onto the NYT fiction bestseller list in the capacity as novelties.
- Therefore, if we want to gauge proliferation of well-written AI-written fiction capable of appealing to audiences not primarily seeking novelty, we want to check for a larger count.
- I have, for this market's purposes, arbitrarily chosen a target of 5.
- Do we expect at least five purely-AI-written books to make it onto the NYT fiction bestseller list before the end of 2030?
- (This could, of course, be confounded by e.g. the NYT establishing a policy of not putting AI-written novels onto the list even if they're selling well.
- If there exist better benchmarks for the same phenomenon, I encourage others to make similar markets resolving against those better benchmarks and link them in the comments here.)
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 54% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2031.
- Comment Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : It's easy to envision one or two purely-AI-written books, given good marketing, making it onto the NYT fiction bestseller list in the capacity as novelties.