Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle2028-2030 48%En tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+3.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète2 avr. 25, 01:36 UTC1 janv. 51, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI in Sep 2026?
KalshiWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Advancements in artificial intelligence have raised the possibility of AI independently creating literary works capable of becoming commercially successful and critically acclaimed.
- This question explores the timeline for when an AI-generated book will independently achieve bestseller status.
- Resolution Criteria:
- This question will resolve as “YES” if all of the following conditions are met:
- At least 99% of the words generated must authored by AI.
- Overwhelming majority of the core ideas, narrative, content, and exposition are generated by AI.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour In which year will an AI written book first achieve bestseller status? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 2028-2030 à 48% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand In which year will an AI written book first achieve bestseller status? sera-t-il résolu ?
- In which year will an AI written book first achieve bestseller status? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2051.
- Comment In which year will an AI written book first achieve bestseller status? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Advancements in artificial intelligence have raised the possibility of AI independently creating literary works capable of becoming commercially successful and critically acclaimed.