Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 86.8%
Prévisionnistes
38
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète15 déc. 22, 18:14 UTC1 janv. 30, 08:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will anyone die from falling debris from a Space X rocket, satellite , or other launch object before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill anyone die from a weaponized pathogen invented by AI by 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030?
KalshiWill Artemis 4 return to Earth with all of its crew alive?
Manifold MarketsEvidence of life out of Earth by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketRègles
If it's unknown where exactly the death occurred, there must be a >=50% chance it occurred at least that far away.
Marchés ouverts
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- 57,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 817,9 k €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will anyone die at least 1000km from Earth before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 87% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will anyone die at least 1000km from Earth before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will anyone die at least 1000km from Earth before 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will anyone die at least 1000km from Earth before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : If it's unknown where exactly the death occurred, there must be a >=50% chance it occurred at least that far away.