Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 83.4%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète23 avr. 23, 05:50 UTC1 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will NASA's mission Artemis III find water and use it on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWill NASA's Europa Clipper confirm liquid water under the ice?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Based on data from the Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS), it is widely believed that there is frozen water trapped in Permanently Shadowed Regions (PSR) in craters near the lunar poles.
- If such water exists, it could prove an extremely useful resource for any future lunar missions, primarily because it could be used to manufacture fuel in-situ, reducing the amount of weight spacecraft must bring to the lunar surface if they hope to lift off again.
- By 2030, will any water have been mined on the Moon? Water collected purely for scientific purposes does not count, it must be collected with the intention to use as a resource.
- A demonstration system to illustrate the feasibility of collecting lunar water as a resource is sufficient, even if the water collected is not actually used.
Marchés ouverts
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- 57,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 817,9 k €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will any water be mined on the Moon by 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 83% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will any water be mined on the Moon by 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will any water be mined on the Moon by 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will any water be mined on the Moon by 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Based on data from the Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS), it is widely believed that there is frozen water trapped in Permanently Shadowed Regions (PSR) in craters near the lunar poles.