Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 83%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète1 juil. 23, 09:24 UTC31 déc. 32, 21:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will South Korea's total fertility rate exceed 1 by 2035
Manifold MarketsIn twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?
Manifold MarketsUS fertility rate in 2030 >= 1.7 if (and only if) Taylor Swift announces a pregnancy by 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill the south korean fertility rate increase in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Currently the highest is France at 1.84 (live births per woman).
- Note that the measure I'm using here is slightly different from "replacement rate" (which is 2.1).
Marchés ouverts
Europe
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 617,4 k €
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.9pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 821,5 k €
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- 107,7 k €
POLYMARKETMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- AfD+2.0pt78.4%
- SPD-1.0pt21.6%
- CDU0%
+5 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson+1.0pt77.5%
- Ulf Kristersson-2.0pt20.6%
- Jimmie Åkesson-0.8pt1%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase-0.1pt100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?
- AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?
- Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will any EU country achieve fertility rate >=2.0 by the end of 2032? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 83% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will any EU country achieve fertility rate >=2.0 by the end of 2032? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will any EU country achieve fertility rate >=2.0 by the end of 2032? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2032.
- Comment Will any EU country achieve fertility rate >=2.0 by the end of 2032? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Currently the highest is France at 1.84 (live births per woman).