In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?
One-OffHealth & MedicineScience16aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 85%
Prévisionnistes
42
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète17 févr. 23, 04:38 UTC2 janv. 43, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?
Manifold MarketsIn twenty years, the best evidence will suggest that sperm counts are substantially declining across most of the world
Manifold MarketsWill credible evidence show that OpenAI deliberately staged the July 2026 Hugging Face incident by January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsEvidence of life out of Earth by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiWhich countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
KalshiRègles
Related to ACX post "Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know".
- Although this says "in at least one country", this is just about whether one country is able to detect it, and I will only mark it as true if it seems to be related to a global phenomenon; ie if there is a chemical spill in one country that causes its fertility to decrease, this will not count.
