Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027? ?

Manifold Markets cote Yes à 58.7% au 28 octobre 2026.

Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?

IAOne-OffTech9mois

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Oui 58.7%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 25 minutes

31 juil. 26, 13:09 UTC31 juil. 27, 23:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

Resolves to YES if any LLM has a long term >40% win rate on Ascension 20 Slay the Spire, averaged across all four characters.

Resolve to NO if this does not happen.
[Note, the best human players can get >80% win rates, so this gives the AI slack to win only half as often.]
To qualify, the AI must be available to the public, and must be 'out of the box' without a custom harness, fine tuning or other extensive attempts to train or coach it to play Slay the Spire in particular in a structured way.
Human interaction during the runs is limited to resolving technical issues, such as securing more compute or fixing IO issues, or telling it to continue.
No strategic assistance.