Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 90.9%
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4
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binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
1 août 26, 16:23 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027
Manifold MarketsWill Slay the Spire 2 release Act 4 before a new alternate act?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a slay the spire, the board game, version in the steam store?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Slay the Spire 2 be fully released?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Needs to wins 3 consecutive runs
- Savescumming does not count
- The LLM agent is allowed to take notes on its failed attempts and craft hooks that generate a higher informational representation of its current state.
- The LLM is not allowed to use/develop a solver to assist in play, though it is permitted to use such systems to aid in post analysis and heuristics crafting
- Update 2026-04-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Act 4 / the Heart boss is added to STS2, defeating it will be required for a valid run
- The creator's general guidance for their standard of "reliable" is: the LLM should have a >75% chance of achieving a win within ~2-3 hours of runtime
