Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 60.5%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète1 août 26, 16:23 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027
Manifold MarketsWill an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Slay the Spire 2 release Act 4 before a new alternate act?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Needs to wins 3 consecutive runs
- Savescumming does not count
- The LLM agent is allowed to take notes on its failed attempts and craft hooks that generate a higher informational representation of its current state.
- The LLM is not allowed to use/develop a solver to assist in play, though it is permitted to use such systems to aid in post analysis and heuristics crafting
- Update 2026-04-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Act 4 / the Heart boss is added to STS2, defeating it will be required for a valid run
- The creator's general guidance for their standard of "reliable" is: the LLM should have a >75% chance of achieving a win within ~2-3 hours of runtime
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027 ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 61% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027 sera-t-il résolu ?
- LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027 doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Needs to wins 3 consecutive runs