Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 98.9%
Prévisionnistes
359
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète16 mars 23, 05:59 UTC2 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
PolymarketWhich math problems will AI solve in 2026?
PolymarketHow many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
PolymarketWill an AI solve a Millennium problem by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be 1500 or more official Pokemon creatures on January 1st 2030?
Manifold MarketsRègles
For the purpose of this question, a mathematical conjecture is considered "important" if it appears on the list of unsolved problems maintained by the following sources:
- The Open Problem Garden (http://garden.irmacs.sfu.ca/)
- The Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI)
- The Unsolved Problems in Number Theory book by Richard K. Guy
- These sources collectively provide a broad variety of conjectures across different fields of mathematics that are widely acknowledged as significant.
- This question will resolve as "Yes" if, before January 1st, 2030, an AI system fully solves any important mathematical conjecture on the combined list of unsolved problems from the mentioned sources, and the solution:
Marchés ouverts
AI
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt56.3%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt24.3%
- Grok+2.4pt7.8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 102,1 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,4 M €
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt62.5%
- 2026-10.0pt25%
- September 30, 2026-4.0pt12.5%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 résultats de plus
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 44,4 k €
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 99% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : For the purpose of this question, a mathematical conjecture is considered "important" if it appears on the list of unsolved problems maintained by the following sources: