Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 57%
Prévisionnistes
37
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète19 nov. 25, 00:05 UTC1 janv. 30, 23:56 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an AI bubble before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an AI bubble before 2030?
Manifold MarketsAI bubble burst by which date?
PolymarketWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if overvaluation of AI related stocks is one significant cause of the next severe and prolonged economic downturn.
- Resolves NO if there is not any AI "bubble pop" or if it does not impact the greater economy in a significant enough way.
- Market will extend until the next depression is clearly established and causes are analyzed by at least 10 reputable publications.
- Classification of a depression will be evaluated based on a majority of reputable news sources and relevant experts.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_bubble
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_depression
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will an AI bubble pop cause the next depression? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 57% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will an AI bubble pop cause the next depression? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will an AI bubble pop cause the next depression? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will an AI bubble pop cause the next depression? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if overvaluation of AI related stocks is one significant cause of the next severe and prolonged economic downturn.