Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 59%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète24 déc. 24, 22:42 UTC1 janv. 40, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Al take 25% of human jobs before 2040?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will Al take 25% of human jobs?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will Al take 90% of human jobs?
Manifold MarketsWill Al take 25% of human jobs before 2050?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in 2026 related to AI?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution Criteria:
- The question will resolve to YES if at least one of the following occurs:
- The broader unemployment rate (U-6) reaches 50% or higher
- The labor force participation rate drops by 50% or more from its 2024 baseline of 62.5%.
- In this context the LFPR should fall to 31.3% or lower.
- This question is concerned with lost jobs and not the number of hours worked per week.
