Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleAI research completely automated by April 2028 45%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète31 mars 26, 03:47 UTC31 mars 28, 03:40 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsWithin the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.
Manifold MarketsIf Robert F Kennedy Jr serves under Trump, will he get fired or forced to resign within 2 years?
Manifold MarketsWill I win the lottery within the next 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRègles
Eliezer Yudkowsky retweeted @deredleritt3r's summary of the state of AI research:
- You don't truly understand the magnitude of the potential impact of powerful AI on the world unless you are aware, and have fully internalized, that senior leadership and most researchers at the frontier labs actually believe the following:
- Existing AI is already significantly speeding up AI research.
- Very soon (this year), AI will very likely take over ALL aspects of AI research other than generation of novel research ideas.
- Soon (within the next 2 years), AI will very likely take over ALL aspects of AI research, period.
- This means hundreds of thousands of GPUs working 24/7 to discover novel ideas at the level of, or better than, the likes of Alec Radford, Ilya Sutskever, etc.
