Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?
IAOne-OffPolitique américaine2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 88.3%
Prévisionnistes
39
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète23 mai 24, 13:08 UTC31 mai 29, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
From https://x.com/_ArnaudS_/status/1793209848953233872, expanded to not refer to Eliezer in particular.
- Resolves to YES if any statement is made or question asked, by anyone participating in a briefing, that clearly refers to AI existential risk, even if other words are used.
- Extinction risk, or any form of 'everyone will die' definitely counts.
- Intent is what matters here.
- Merely catastrophic risk does not count.
- Disrupting the proceedings does not count, unless this causes a participant to also mention it.
