Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 94%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 minutes
9 sept. 26, 06:08 UTC31 déc. 35, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will *all* Millennium Problems be solved by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow many problems of my JMO mock will be solved by EOY 2026
Manifold MarketsHow many FrontierMath Open Problems solved by EOY2027?
Manifold MarketsWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiWhen will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
KalshiHow many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiRègles
"Solved" means aging is reversible and humans are biologically immortal.
- Resolves "yes" if I can purchase the solution for less than 10^25 arithmetic operations (~$5m in 2026).
- Resolves "not applicable" if humans go extinct before a solution is discovered.
Marchés ouverts
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.2pt97%
- Yes+0.2pt3%
- Volume total
- 15,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 30,4 k €
POLYMARKETEbola pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Volume total
- 652,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 3,5 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,9 k €
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000+1.0pt97%
- Above 600059%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 865,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 2,7 k €
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+1.0pt94.1%
- Yes-1.0pt5.9%
- Volume total
- 915,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,4 k €
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt65%
- September41%
- June28%
- Volume total
- 84 k €
- When will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
- FDA decision: Anitocabtagene Autoleucel (anito-cel) by Gilead Sciences (in 2026)
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will aging be solved by EOY 2035? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 94% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will aging be solved by EOY 2035? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will aging be solved by EOY 2035? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2035.
- Comment Will aging be solved by EOY 2035? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : "Solved" means aging is reversible and humans are biologically immortal.