Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 70.5%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète14 févr. 24, 02:02 UTC1 janv. 31, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By 2030, will AI have wiped off the whole world's trout population?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?
Manifold MarketsWill a publicly traded asteroid‑mining company exist by EOY 2050?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiRègles
resolves yes if an entire asteroid of any size (greater than 5 pounds) is recovered on earth by 2030.
- If this has already happened it does not count, it has to be between now and market resolution.
- I don't understand why this isn't implied in all questions 🙄
Marchés ouverts
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- 57,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 817,9 k €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour will a whole asteroid be recovered on earth by 2030 ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 71% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand will a whole asteroid be recovered on earth by 2030 sera-t-il résolu ?
- will a whole asteroid be recovered on earth by 2030 doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2031.
- Comment will a whole asteroid be recovered on earth by 2030 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : resolves yes if an entire asteroid of any size (greater than 5 pounds) is recovered on earth by 2030.