Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 65.5%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète3 sept. 26, 04:14 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
On September 1–2, 2026, OpenAI published "Path to Astra," stating that its upcoming Astra model can find previously unknown security flaws and develop ways to exploit them across many well-protected systems without a person guiding each step.
- It is the first model any lab has affirmatively described this way.
- This market asks whether a second developer says it before the year ends.
- Resolves YES if: between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, an AI developer other than OpenAI publicly and affirmatively states that one of its models has either:
- (a) reached the top cybersecurity or cyber-offense capability tier under that company's own published risk framework (e.g. Google DeepMind announcing a model reached its cyberattack Critical Capability Level, or Anthropic announcing a cyber capability threshold requiring its highest safeguards); or
- (b) regardless of tier labels or frameworks, become capable of all four of the following together: discovering previously unknown vulnerabilities, developing functional working exploits for them, against hardened or well-protected real-world systems, without a human directing each step.
Marchés ouverts
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a second AI lab say one of its models can find and exploit unknown security flaws on its own? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 66% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a second AI lab say one of its models can find and exploit unknown security flaws on its own? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a second AI lab say one of its models can find and exploit unknown security flaws on its own? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will a second AI lab say one of its models can find and exploit unknown security flaws on its own? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : On September 1–2, 2026, OpenAI published "Path to Astra," stating that its upcoming Astra model can find previously unknown security flaws and develop ways to exploit them across many well-protected systems without a person guiding each step.